US chases a ‘Trumpian grand bargain’ with Iran as the message shifts again

Washington: The United States is pursuing a “Trumpian grand bargain” with Iran that would begin to normalise relations and see the rogue state reintegrate with the global economy, US Vice President JD Vance says, as he struck a highly optimistic tone about the possibility of a deal to end the war.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said in a television interview on Tuesday (US time) that while he believed the Iranians wanted to make a deal, he would be comfortable walking away because so much of the country’s military had been destroyed.

“I view it [the war] as very close to over,” he told Fox News Business. “If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild their country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens.”

The remarks came as diplomats from Israel and Lebanon met in Washington for what both sides said were constructive talks amid ongoing warfare between the Israelis and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

The two-hour meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not result in a ceasefire declaration by Israel, but the parties agreed to begin direct negotiations at a later time.

Vance, who led US negotiations with Iran in Pakistan at the weekend, remains bullish about the prospect of a comprehensive deal to end the war, claiming that Trump was pursuing a much broader agreement that would reintegrate Tehran into global markets.

“We made a tonne of progress,” Vance said of the negotiations so far.

“But the reason the deal is not yet done is the president really wants a deal where Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon, Iran is not sponsoring terrorism, but also the people of Iran can thrive and prosper and join the world economy.

“That’s the trade that he’s offering. He said: ‘If you guys commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran thrive, we’re going to make it economically prosperous’.

“That’s the kind of Trumpian grand bargain that the president has put on the table. We’re going to keep on negotiating and try to make it happen … I feel very good about where we are.”

White House officials said a second round of in-person talks with Iran was under consideration, but nothing had yet been scheduled.

Vance’s description of the prospective deal was reminiscent of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump scrapped that deal, which was inked by Barack Obama, and regularly calls it the worst deal ever made.

It represents a significant shift from when the vice president left Islamabad lamenting that while progress had been made, the failure to reach an agreement was “bad news for Iran”.

Iran’s nuclear enrichment remains the key sticking point, with the regime offering a relatively short pause but the US seeking a much longer moratorium.

Vance claimed that during the talks, he sat next to the person who was “effectively running the country in Iran”, believed to refer to Iran’s powerful parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said that was not a fair characterisation, and that real authority lay with the supreme leader and an elite coterie around him.

“Ghalibaf is a senior figure, but he is not the one who truly holds power in Iran. He is neither empowered nor inclined to compromise on core strategic issues,” Citrinowicz said on X.

“Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, or its regional proxy network, regardless of who is formally involved in talks.”

On the other major matter – the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz – US Central Command said no ships passed through its blockade, while six vessels complied with US directives to turn around, without the need for troops to board.

Guided-missile destroyers were among the military assets executing the blockade, which is only targeting ships transiting to or from Iranian ports or coastal areas.

“In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” said CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper.

Ships from non-Iranian ports are being allowed through, with The Wall Street Journal reporting more than 20 commercial vessels transited the strait in 24 hours, citing US officials. Some analysts disputed this, however, based on tracking data.

Twenty boats would be higher than the typical number during the past seven weeks of the war between the US, Israel and Iran, but considerably fewer than the 130 or so that ordinarily transit the strait in a day.

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