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Oil tankers and cargo ships lining up in the Strait of Hormuz. What if it stays closed?

We daren’t ask, but … what if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen?

Nearly 90 days since the US-Israeli war on Iran all but closed the sea route, it’s worth considering what seems unthinkable but has happened elsewhere. Call it historical science fiction.

  • Javier Blas

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US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s mood swings are holding the world’s financial system hostage

Donald Trump’s war has been a disaster on every level and now the oil shock it created is mushrooming into a wider financial crisis.

  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Illustration by Dionne Gain

Where have all the fiscal hawks gone? We need to find some – and quickly

Politics in the democratic world has moved decisively against fiscal responsibility. A reckoning looms for the global economy.

  • Michael Brennan
Xi Trump Iran

‘Eating bitterness’: China is set up to outlast Trump’s America

Donald Trump goes to Beijing badly needing Chinese help to extricate himself from a quagmire that threatens to destroy his presidency and is entirely of his own making.

  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Trump seems to believe that a blockade will achieve in a matter of days what 24,000 air strikes and the assassination of the regime’s top tier failed to achieve.

Trump’s video game war has the world in an economic spiral

We need an immediate peace deal in the Gulf for major economies across the globe to avoid falling into recession. But that requires an end to wishful thinking in the Oval Office.

  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The war is having wide-ranging effects on the global economy.

The next casualty of Trump’s war is already here

It is the coldest-known substance on Earth used in a number of crucial parts of the global economy. And we are running low.

  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
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Capt. Silke Lehmköster, who worked at sea for 15 years,now coordinates intelligence, advisories and shipping crews as the fleet managing director at Hapag-Lloyd, a shipping giant in Hamburg, Germany,

‘Basically sending someone unarmed into war’: The life-or-death decision Silke faces every day

Silke Lehmköster grapples with the same question every day. For nearly two months, the answer was no. Then, early last week, she saw a window of opportunity.

  • Jenny Gross
If Donald Trump’s blockade fails to bend Iran to America’s will, the US will then face some very difficult choices.

Trump’s war is a clear and present danger to your future

Financial markets around the world have lost their fairy godmother and there will be serious consequences.

  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The energy shock and impact of the war that the US and Israel launched, even if it ends soon, will range from quite damaging to severely damaging.

When the war is over, the world won’t be the same

The International Monetary Fund has produced gloomy scenarios for the economic impact of the war in the Middle East. The long-term outlook is worse.

  • Stephen Bartholomeusz
The war against Iran is already costing the global economy. But just to fight a war means tough choices for governments and voters.

War a bigger economic wrecking ball than fires, floods or financial crisis

There may be a ceasefire in Iran, but war – and the run-up in military spending – leaves a long-term cost to the sick and young, new research shows.

  • Shane Wright