Why the Greens think they can lead a left-wing revolt to take on One Nation

The Victorian Greens believe they can lead a wave of left-wing populism and counter a surging One Nation, despite having been so far unable to capitalise on growing disillusionment with the major parties.

In an interview with The Age, Greens leader Ellen Sandell said the party had sharpened its focus on suburban voters and cost-of-living pressures ahead of November’s state election, while accusing Labor of lurching to the right under Premier Jacinta Allan.

But political insiders and experts are sceptical that the Greens can shed a perception of elitism and become a true anti-establishment party of the working class to have widespread appeal.

Sandell said there was a growing appetite for a left-wing alternative to the major parties in Australia, off the back of the recent success of the Green party of England and Wales and Democratic socialist New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

While the party will focus on winnable inner-city seats including Prahran, Albert Park, Pascoe Vale and Footscray, Sandell said they were also engaging with voters and seats the Greens had not traditionally targeted.

A recent launch for Box Hill candidate Aaron Qin attracted more than 400 people, Sandell said, while support had also increased in Melbourne’s western suburbs.

“We’re broadening our appeal to people who are fed up with the major parties, and want a government that works for them, [not] political parties that are just funded by the billionaires and corporations,” she said.

“Labor, Liberal, and One Nation are all funded by and controlled by the same funders, the ultra-wealthy, and I think people want politics that works for people.”

At a Victorian Greens campaign conference last weekend, Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, told attendees via video link that progressives had to learn from what was driving right-wing populism. He urged them to take on One Nation directly as his party had taken on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

England’s Green Party is experiencing unprecedented popularity, serving as the left-wing alternative to the populist right-wing Reform and taking votes away from Labour.

Sandell said environment and climate change issues remained central to the party’s agenda, but the Greens were increasingly focused on housing, renting and cost-of-living issues.

“We shouldn’t have a situation where big corporations get to make obscene profits while people can’t buy a house, can’t pay their rent and are struggling with the cost of groceries,” she said.

“Perhaps the UK is a bit more down the path of the old major parties dying, but I think we’re on the way in Australia … because they don’t stand for people any more, and I think that we could see similar success.”

However, experts question whether the Victorian Greens can replicate the anti-establishment, working-class appeal enjoyed by the UK Green Party.

The Age’s Resolve Political Monitor has consistently placed the Greens’ primary vote about 10 to 13 per cent, and nationally, the party captured about 12 per cent of the vote at the federal election. The party currently holds three lower house state seats: Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond.

Benjamin Moffitt, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Monash University, said that unlike the UK Greens, the Australian Greens had been an established third party for decades.

“I think they would need to have an entirely different set of candidates drawn from a wider array of social backgrounds,” he said.

“If you look at the Victorian Greens, they are a party of lawyers, doctors and policy wonks. It’s a professional knowledge class.”

He cautioned against comparisons with One Nation, saying left-wing populism fundamentally focused on socioeconomic grievances while right-wing populism also drew heavily on social and cultural concerns.

Pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said that while the Greens performed strongly with young voters, capturing up to 40 per cent of Gen Z women, they would not pose a widespread populist threat without a ruthless “old-school left wing” focus on the economy.

He said the party’s focus on international and social issues, including the war in Gaza, limited its electoral appeal.

Sandell disputed suggestions the party had been too focused on a narrow constituency and was perceived as elitist.

“If you want to look at a party that has that, is far away from what is actually affecting people’s lives right now, look at the Labor Party,” she said.

Sandell defended the party’s advocacy on human rights in Palestine, saying she was proud of their principled positions.

“The Greens will always stand strong in the things that we believe in, but we have also, for a long time, talked about housing, we have, for a long time, talked about free public transport, the kinds of things that affect people’s lives right here in Victoria,” she said.

Looking ahead to November’s election, when asked if the Greens would support a minority Labor government, Sandell said it was too early to talk about it. She said she was focused on replacing Labor, not making them better.

She accused Allan of kowtowing to the gun lobby in not banning duck shooting and refusing to introduce gun ownership caps after the Bondi terrorist attack, while also criticising her for giving money to the grand prix and demolishing public-housing towers.

“I have been dismayed to see Jacinta Allan move to the right since she’s become premier,” Sandell said.

“Maybe she always held those right-wing views. I have been dismayed by that.”

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