As it happened: Liberal Party declares victory, holds off One Nation challenge

Thank you for joining our live coverage of the Nepean byelection this evening. As it stands, just under 80 per cent of the votes have been counted.

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh declared victory to a room of supporters in Rye, supported by Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and multiple MPs.

One Nation’s Darren Hercus has secured 24 per cent of the primary vote, while independent candidate Tracee Hutchison claimed 21 per cent.

Keep an eye out on Sunday for our analysis of this byelection, and what it might mean when the whole state returns to the polls in November.

Liberal MP Anthony Marsh said he is honoured and delighted to be elected to represent Nepean in parliament and start working from Monday, before he is officially sworn in.

“I’m stoked, [we] put a lot into everything over the last 67 days. And it’s great to see that come off and that people can see that we had the best offering for them,” Marsh told The Age. “I look forward to hitting the ground on Monday.”

The atmosphere has relaxed inside the Rye Hotel since the Liberals declared victory, with volunteers swaying to Earth, Wind and Fire’s Boogie Wonderland.

The Liberal Party is appealing to voters disaffected with the major parties, saying it will listen to and act on their frustrations.

Liberal MP Evan Mulholland said Anthony Marsh’s win was a strong result and that he would make a good addition to their party room but added it was an “important opportunity to listen as well to the voters who are clearly frustrated”.

With 79 per cent of the vote counted, Marsh had pulled 38 per cent of the primary, down 10 per cent on Sam Groth’s in 2022, which is largely being attributed to One Nation’s rise.

Mulholland told The Age he believed Nepean residents were mostly frustrated with Labor, who didn’t stand a candidate, but he said “there’s always an opportunity to listen” to voters.

“There’s a real frustration about this government about their heading towards $200 billion of debt during a cost-of-living crisis,” Mulholland said.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has delivered an impassioned speech to Liberal Party faithful inside the Rye Hotel, declaring that Nepean residents will be looked after by the party.

She pledged to rebuild the Rosebud Hospital, crack down on crime and fix local roads.

“I will fight for you every day, but I will also take the lessons out of the result,” she said. “Tonight, we will take the learnings, and what we take away is that we have more work to do every single day to earn the trust of Victorians.”

She said she understood voters were fed up with Labor and promised a Liberal government would be more transparent with its constituents.

“I know you’re sick and tired of politicians telling you that everything is going to be OK,” she said.

“You’re sick and tired of the spin, and I’ve said to you, I will be upfront, I will be honest … so that we take the plan to November this year, when people go into the ballot box, they put a number one next to the Victorian Liberals and Nationals, and change the government this November.”

Liberal leader Jess Wilson told the crowd she was so excited to welcome candidate Anthony Marsh as the next member for Nepean.

“I have stood by Anthony for weeks, I worked alongside him for months on this byelection campaign, and he had worked tirelessly every single day to listen to the residents down here on the peninsula,” she said.

“He and his wife, Nat, are raising their young family on the peninsula. They are invested in the future, and I know how passionate he is about fighting for residents down here on the peninsula.”

One Nation candidate Darren Hercus has thanked his backers for their continued support, as the results indicate that he will fall short of winning the seat.

Hercus announced his intention to run again at the upcoming November election to a room of cheering fans.“I’ve had such amazing support from volunteers … even if we don’t win, we stuck to the moral high ground,” he said.

The party’s post-campaign event, which is being livestreamed on the X account of political commentator Rukshan Fernando, is being held at the Dromana Hotel. The Age requested to attend the party, but was denied entry.

One Nation’s Victorian state president Warren Pickering also boasted to supporters that One Nation will have “a ripple effect” at the upcoming November state election.

Election analysts say the Liberal Party will win the seat of Nepean.

The VEC has now counted 34 per cent of the vote, with Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh sitting on a primary vote of 40 per cent. One Nation’s Darren Hercus is on 21 per cent and independent Tracee Hutchison is on 20 per cent.

Not long after the latest round of numbers, former ABC chief election analyst Antony Green declared Marsh the victor, saying no other candidate would be able to overtake him on preferences. William Bowe, the editor of elections website Poll Bludger, also called the byelection for Marsh.

Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian agreed the Liberals were likely to retain their hold on Nepean.

But he said the primary vote swing against them showed voters had “taken this opportunity to give the Liberal Party a bit of a kick up the backside but it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough for the Liberal Party to lose the seat”.

“This shouldn’t have been a seat that the Liberal Party would lose anyway,” Ghazarian said. “So it is a warning sign for the Liberal Party.”