Political hangover hits the premier ahead of the ‘killing season’

By 5.30pm at the end of a typical sitting week in the Victorian parliament, most Labor MPs are usually out the door early and on their way home.

Thursday was different. A marathon all-nighter to reinstate Victoria’s donations laws kept MPs in the building, leaving Labor members to break bread together in the Strangers’ restaurant.

Premier Jacinta Allan was there for part of the dinner. It could have been an opportunity to rally her troops, less than six months out from the state election, but accounts of the mood differ. One MP said it was unifying after a difficult week; another said the caucus felt flat.

At several points, the quiet conversations shifted to the government’s chances in November. MPs perused gambling websites that had the Coalition at shorter odds of victory than Labor for the first time in a decade.

Some drank well into the night, stuck inside the building amid a heavy storm that sent water gushing into the offices of some MPs.

By Friday morning, there were leaks of a different kind, as renewed speculation about the viability of the premier’s leadership burst into the open. It was the ultimate political hangover.

The Age spoke to eight Labor MPs across the factional divide who, speaking anonymously to avoid repercussions, said frustration with Allan was building again, and a challenge could take place before the November 28 election.

Others argue a spill is far from a sure thing, believing the numbers aren’t there for a proper challenge to the premier. But all agree that constant conversations about the rise of One Nation, poor polling and Friday’s 5.30am finish had put the caucus in a fractious mood.

It had already been another challenging parliamentary sitting week for Allan, marked by a belated commitment to reform the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission, messy negotiations over campaign finance laws and repeated questioning over character references provided by freshly minted minister Luba Grigorovitch.

The next sitting week may be even more difficult. When parliament returns on June 16, it will be for the last time before the winter break – a period colloquially known in political circles as “the killing season” due to a history of leadership challenges in Australian politics.

What happens when Labor MPs gather for their regular Tuesday caucus meeting is in many ways up to Allan. Members of her team are spooked by Labor’s struggling popularity, as the party faces as serious a challenge from One Nation as that of its traditional rivals.

When trying to explain the discontent among government MPs, most point to multiple opinion polls showing Allan’s popularity has cratered and so has Labor’s primary vote. A potential flashpoint is whether the next round of polling fuels or eases this anxiety.

The Resolve Political Monitor published by The Age will shortly be in the field canvassing voter sentiment. Its most recent published results, from a survey in April, showed that state Labor’s primary vote was 27 per cent, the Coalition 29 per cent and One Nation 21 per cent.

Just 20 per cent of voters listed Allan as preferred premier, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson had the support of 39 per cent. The rest remained undecided.

On Friday, Narre Warren South Labor MP Gary Maas announced he would not contest November’s election. His outer-suburban seat is the kind that will be heavily targeted by One Nation.

Worried MPs also point to concerns about the premier’s political strategy. One told The Age that Allan may have shot herself in the foot with her about-face on IBAC’s powers.

“We needed to do something because people won’t stop talking about the $15 billion figure,” they said. “But in acting now, we’ve drawn attention to the issue again.”

Barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, estimated earlier this year that corruption linked to the CFMEU had cost about $15 billion across the $100 billion Big Build program – a figure Allan and her ministers have repeatedly disputed.

But Labor MPs agree that despite these denials, the figure has had significant cut-through with the public, and that they have continued to hear it mentioned on social media and in their electorates.

If no challenger comes forward at Labor’s next caucus meeting, the premier will have six weeks over winter to shore up her support before parliament resumes and MPs meet again. A challenger would have to gather the numbers needed to hold a special caucus meeting in a non-sitting week.

No one has declared their intention to challenge for the leadership and no formal discussions about a spill have taken place. But two Labor MPs, from the Left and Right factions, said the leadership rumblings that emerged in March – which Allan rejected at the time as “anonymous gossip” from “a few scallywags” – were not the end of the matter for the premier.

Any potential challenge against Allan has long centred on whether aspiring candidates could secure enough votes from Labor’s Left and Right groups to be elected.

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, from the Right, and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams and Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos, both from the Left, have all been touted.

None of them responded when contacted for comment on Friday, and nor did Allan’s office.

Some MPs have spoken to Williams who has said that she would not put herself up as a leadership contender. Should this remain the case, Carroll would be the most likely candidate able to marshal the numbers – if he puts his hand up – given his status as the leader of the Right.

While the Left holds the majority in the caucus, not all its members are convinced Allan is their best bet to lead them to November, creating the chance that the numbers shift against her.

Under party rules, a new Labor leader would need to win a vote of both the caucus and a ballot of party members, should Allan refuse to step aside in the event of a challenge.

That is according to the ALP’s national rules adopted in 2013 in response to the instability of the Rudd and Gillard federal governments, although this has never been tested for a sitting premier in Victoria. Allan replaced Daniel Andrews when he stepped down in 2023 and Steve Bracks made way for John Brumby in 2007.

One Left MP said on Friday that it was unclear whether the party would benefit from a leadership change. Another told The Age their colleagues MPs were grumpy about a “shit week” and having to stay up until 5am on Friday, and that things may cool off.

“I’m not sure the numbers are there,” they said.

That may be so. But they are being counted.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.