Stafford voters are picking a new MP. Here’s what you need to know

The next Queensland election is still 2½ years away, but voters in one Brisbane seat should have a new MP within a fortnight.

Early voting is now open for the May 16 Stafford byelection, the second out-of-cycle vote since the LNP took government in October 2024.

While the LNP’s majority means the result will not change the government at all, byelections are often treated as tests of support.

So whether you’re a voter or not, the byelection and its fallout will shape political debate. Here’s everything you need to know.

Why is the election being held and who has to vote?

The byelection was triggered by the death of MP Jimmy Sullivan in early April, who had been sitting as an independent after he was expelled from Labor last year amid highly publicised personal struggles.

All eligible Australian citizens over the age of 18 who live in the electorate and have done so for a month are required to vote, or risk facing a $166.90 fine.

You can see a map of the seat below, and check to see if you live within it via the Electoral Commission of Queensland.

What are the dates for early and postal voting?

Early voting opened on Tuesday, May 5, and will continue every weekday until Friday, May 15.

Anyone wishing to vote early can do so between 8am and 6pm at the Chermside Kedron Community Church on the corner of Rode and Gympie roads in Kedron, or the Wilston Grange Australian Football Club at Hickey Park in Stafford.

The deadline for requesting a postal vote has already closed. If you have applied for one of these, you still need to complete it by 6pm on voting day and post it in so the ECQ receives it by May 26.

Voting day, for every other registered voter in the electorate, will be on Saturday, May 16. A total of 12 polling booths will be open across the electorate from 8am until 6pm.

What candidates and political parties are running?

A total of nine candidates representing seven registered political parties will be contesting the byelection.

Find more detail about each of the candidates in the interactive graphic below, taken from information on their online profiles and disclosed by the ECQ.

The candidates and their party affiliations are listed in the order they will appear on the ballot paper.

What are the major candidates focusing on?

Labor, the last party to hold the seat, has focused on health and affordability concerns, while Hammond and the LNP are leaning heavily on their plans for future fuel security for the state.

On the negative side, Richmond and Labor have claimed the Crisafulli government has “cut 93 beds” from the Prince Charles Hospital. In reality, an expansion initiated by the former Labor government is awaiting an updated timeline.

Meanwhile, the LNP has been seeking to tie Richmond’s role in Labor – he was most recently the party’s assistant state secretary – to claims of failures in the health sector. Both major parties are seeking to paint the poll as a chance for voters to pass judgment on their rivals.

Lane and the Greens are campaigning heavily on cost of living, housing, and education. Lane herself is a teacher. The conflict in Palestine has also been a key part of her campaign material.

What could the results be, and when will we know?

Sullivan won the seat for Labor with a margin of 5.3 per cent against Hammond at the 2024 election.

In that contest, Lane polled third on first preferences with 18 per cent of the primary vote. The next closest candidates were from One Nation with 3.2 per cent, then Denaro with 1.9 per cent.

One Nation has decided not to contest this byelection, citing the short four-week campaign period.

Across the 23 Queensland byelections back to 1996, the average swing against the government has been 4.2 per cent, while the average swing against the incumbent party has been 5.9 per cent.

The counting of votes will take place after 6pm on May 16, until some time later that night. Additional counting is then likely to continue on the Sunday.

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