NSW Liberals’ dire finances spark fears for 2027 election campaign

Senior NSW Liberals say the party’s parlous financial state could undermine its attempt to reclaim government, forcing hard decisions about seats to target at the 2027 state election.

With less than a year before the March poll, NSW Electoral Commission donation disclosures show the Liberal Party has raised less than $900,000 in the nine months of the 2025-26 financial year to date – a quarter of last year’s sum, and 35 per cent of that raised in 2023-24.

Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane enters an election year facing a bevy of problems, with 11 Liberal-held seats on margins under 5 per cent, and Premier Chris Minns streets ahead as preferred premier.

But the dramatic decline in the party’s primary vote and the consequences of a resurgent One Nation have senior Liberals, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential party matters, privately concerned they will exacerbate the party’s existing financial position, with possible electoral ramifications.

“I don’t think many people know how bad it is,” said one senior Liberal. “The average party member and MP are in blissful ignorance. There’s a problem with all the party’s three accounts: state, federal and admin.”

Sluggish fundraising among state Liberal MPs has caused concern internally. Only seven MPs had raised significant sums, said two insiders: leader Kellie Sloane, deputy Natalie Ward, Mark Speakman, Mark Coure, Tim James, Rachel Merton and Matt Cross.

“MPs are expecting the leader, party or head office to come in and save them during the campaign,” a shadow minister said.

“Mike Baird saved them, then Gladys, then Dom [Perrottet] and Matt [Kean]. There’s no one to save them this time.”

Shadow ministers and MPs are expected to raise $40,000 to $70,000 to defend their seats. The Liberals’ four-year NSW fundraising data was leaked in August, revealing only $220,208, or 11.5 per cent, of its $1.91 million goal had been raised. The Australian has reported that the NSW Liberals expected to post an $825,000 deficit for 2024-25.

“It’s a hard fundraising environment,” the shadow minister said. “We’re in opposition, and no one likes our prospects.

“It means less resources available to fewer campaigns. Problem is, we have more marginal seats than ever.”

Two sources said that funding pressures could result in less cash for targeting Labor-held seats in March.

A senior MP suggested Parramatta or Heathcote as seats where the party would not spend its entire $150,000 cap. Other sources said it was too early to say where electoral expenditure would be directed.

“The NSW Liberal state campaign preparations, including fundraising, are well under way,” a party spokesman said.

Of the $895,243 raised by the Liberals this financial year, $411,000 represents fundraising revenue, $150,000 comes from reportable donations and $159,000 from membership fees. Such figures are all considerably below the levels they reached each year since 2021-22, donation disclosures show.

A senior Liberal source said the party had been hit by its poor performance at last year’s federal poll after Liberal pollster Freshwater bullishly predicted the party would score a primary vote of 37 per cent, more than 5 per cent higher than the actual result.

“The federal account is in deficit,” an MP said, noting the party’s administration account was also suffering from a loss of fees as it bled members.

“Not many know how broke the state party is,” a Liberal insider said.

One party insider said that two recent fundraisers – dinners to celebrate the 30th anniversary of John Howard’s 1996 election victory and 15 years since NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell’s win – had been used to pay down outstanding party debt.

That was forcing difficult decisions, another party insider said, with “push and pull” about its spend on May’s Farrer byelection. The Liberals are polling third, behind Independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation.

The party’s financial position was exacerbated by the hundreds of thousands of dollars that candidates racked up during last year’s federal campaign, including more than $400,000 owed in Bennelong by Scott Yung, and more than $350,000 by Paterson candidate Laurence Antcliff.

Two Liberal sources said that of acute concern was languishing popularity and how this would restrict the capacity to borrow funds against its projected primary vote.

Before the 2023 state poll, the party took out a $4.25 million Westpac loan to cover campaign expenditure. The Coalition received more than 35 per cent of the primary vote, but a lower projected vote would translate to a smaller loan, three sources said.

“The One Nation surge means the projection of our public funding is much lower,” a senior source said.

Last month’s Resolve poll put the Coalition’s primary vote at 25 per cent.

Several sources expressed confidence that the return of Mark Neeham as the party’s state director, 13 years after he left the post, would instil spending discipline and better corporate controls.

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