Labor expects more migrants as Coalition, One Nation seeks big reduction in numbers

The Albanese government expects 35,000 more migrants to stay in the country this financial year than previously forecast, as the Coalition prepares to announce a proposal to slash migration to combat a surge of voters moving to One Nation.

In Tuesday’s budget documents, the government’s net overseas migration estimates for this financial year rose to 295,000 from the previous expectation of 260,000. Migration is expected to fall in the coming years, but next year’s figures remain 20,000 migrants higher than previously forecast.

Net overseas migration, which tracks long-term arrivals to the country minus departures, has become a hotly contested issue, as One Nation, the Nationals and the Liberals have argued that “mass migration” is strangling Australians’ access to housing and infrastructure.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor is expected to unveil his party’s desired migration rate in his budget reply speech on Thursday. The Coalition has flagged it would tie migration numbers to the construction of new housing.

At his first press conference after toppling former Liberal leader Sussan Ley in February, Taylor said: “Numbers have been too high and standards have been too low … our ­policy will also be about putting Australians first”.

He has since called for a migration policy that “discriminates” based on values.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, whose party won its first federal lower house seat at an election on Saturday, has accused Taylor of copying her party’s migration stance.

“Do I trust them to deliver like One Nation does? No, because the Liberal Party is full of moderates ... It’s the same rhetoric, but they won’t carry it through. I don’t think they will go far enough,” she said last month.

Hanson’s populist party has been soaring in the polls, leaching the Coalition’s primary vote and overtaking the opposition in Resolve Political Monitor surveys conducted by this masthead.

One Nation wants to slash net overseas migration to a rate of 130,000 a year. While the Coalition’s final migration number has yet to be announced, figures below 200,000 have been suggested.

According to Tuesday’s budget documents, net overseas migration will reach 225,000 in 2027-28, instead of a year earlier as predicted in December’s midyear update.

Budget papers said the updated projections were moderately higher than previously expected because temporary visa holders were leaving Australia at lower rates than in the past.

Migration from New Zealand is expected to remain high as workers seek a stronger employment market in Australia.

Labor has defended its oversight of migration and has committed to lowering net overseas migration.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said the government was “bringing the numbers down and bringing the standards up” as he had demonstrated a hardline stance on visa rejections on character grounds.

Migration numbers have been shifting downwards since a peak of more than 500,000 when borders reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The budget papers say Labor’s migration policies will put downward pressure on net overseas migration.

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