Think the petrol crisis is bad now? A million kids are about to return to school

The return to class of more than a million Victorian schoolchildren from Monday will send demand for petrol and diesel soaring by up to 20 per cent, fuel retailers say, as state and federal governments tried to reassure motorists after this week’s refinery fire.

The federal government has ruled out foreign interference as the cause of the fire at Viva Energy’s oil refinery at Corio, in Geelong, which exploded into flames on Wednesday night and burnt into Thursday morning.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited the plant on Friday morning, and sought to reassure motorists that the fuel would keep pumping from the nation’s bowsers despite the “regrettable” blaze at the plant which typically supplies 50 per cent of Victoria’s fuel, and 10 per cent of Australia’s.

Albanese visited the damaged refinery with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

“There were six refineries in Australia when we left office in 2013, and when we came back [in 2022] there were two. That was an error,” Albanese said.

Two NSW fuel refineries announced their imminent closure when Albanese was transport minister. The Clyde refinery shut in 2012 and the Kurnell refinery announced the same year it would do the same, and ceased operations for good in 2014.

On Thursday at the Viva site, Australian Workers’ Union state branch president Ross Kenna urged the federal government to “start taking fuel security seriously”, including by investing in the remaining facilities.

“Once you lose sovereign capacity, it’s hard to rebuild,” Kenna said.

The refinery’s owner, Viva Energy, said the plant had staged a rapid recovery, managing to claw back the vast majority of its production capacity within 48 hours of the incident.

But with hundreds of thousands of daily school runs to resume from Monday, the Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce (VACC), representing service station operators, expects demand at the bowser to rebound by 15 to 20 per cent as the Easter school holidays end.

The state government’s free public transport scheme has also been putting downward pressure on demand for motor fuel, but the chamber says it expects sales to rebound further after the free fares come to an end on April 30.

VACC chief executive Peter Jones told this masthead that school holidays and the return to the classroom both had significant impacts on rates of fuel consumption, especially in the big cities.

“The school run is genuinely one of the most reliable drivers of fuel consumption in urban areas,” Jones said.

“When that stops for two weeks, our members feel it at the bowser. A 15 to 20 per cent drop in metro consumption during school holidays is consistent with what we hear from members each year.

“Consumption is expected to lift in the coming weeks as students return to school from 22 April.”

In 2025, almost 60 per cent of primary and secondary students in Melbourne travelled to school in cars, according to the state government’s Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity, compared with 52 per cent recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 1994, and just 20 per cent in 1974.

Jones said the end of free public transport would also have a big effect on fuel demand.

“The more significant factor will be the conclusion of the government’s free public transport offer, also ending in April,” he said.

“Both of these will push metro demand back up. Those two factors together are probably the bigger story for fuel retailers heading into May.”

Jones said now that the panic-buying of fuel that marked the early period of the crisis had subsided, the bigger problem for petrol retailers was uncertainty about future supply, despite the government’s reassurances.

“The panic-buying easing is welcome, but the underlying problem hasn’t gone away for independent operators. Too many of our members are still flying blind when it comes to forward supply and pricing,” Jones said.

“We are calling on the government to provide greater transparency around fuel supply so that independent retailers can plan their businesses with confidence, and so that consumers can have confidence in the bowser price they’re paying.”

Viva Energy, the operator of the Corio refinery, says it can make up for the 10 to 20 per cent of refining capacity lost to the blaze, and that the state and federal governments have repeatedly said the refinery fire would not affect availability of fuel at the bowser.

During his appearance at Corio on Friday, Albanese said the fire would not prompt a move by Australia to the third stage of the national fuel security plan, which includes “practical measures” limiting fuel use.

“The event here will not lead to any change,” he said.

“We’ll give an update tomorrow [Saturday] about fuel supplies that are on hand. Fuel is continuing to come in.”

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan said she had spoken to Viva Energy chief executive Scott Wyatt and received the same advice that operations would continue sufficiently to ensure Victoria had adequate fuel supply.

“The advice is right now that the incident at Geelong, the fire at the oil refinery at Geelong, will not have an impact on Victoria’s fuel supply,” she said.

But in Melbourne’s suburbs, school parents have been feeling the pain of spiralling fuels costs for weeks.

Werribee mother of three Tania Yousuf drives for an hour each school morning to deliver her children to Islamic College of Melbourne and Suzanne Cory High School, and pays a driver $40 a day to do the afternoon pick-up.

With public transport not a practical option for the family, Yousuf says she had no choice but to absorb the extra fuel costs and try to cut other areas of household spending.

“It has a big impact on my budget,” she said. “Anywhere I have to go, I can’t stop it increasing. It used to be $100 to $110 a week. Now it’s $160 a week to refuel.

“I used to go out with the kids on Saturdays and Sundays, maybe shopping or something. I’ve had to try to cut down on that.”

Parents Victoria chief executive officer Gail McHardy predicted that families would look for ways around the fuel crunch while getting their children to school.

“Families are adaptable and will make the school commute work however they can, but support should remain focused where it’s most critical,” McHardy said.

“Some families will feel this more than others, particularly where options are limited.

“But across the board, families adjust – whether that’s carpooling, sharing care, or changing routines.

“We anticipate that families will lean on each other more – carpooling, coordinating supervision, and encouraging walking where possible.”

There is evidence that families are reacting to the fuel crisis by walking away from petrol or diesel cars, with electric vehicle sales almost doubling in March from the same time last year, or switching transport modes for their school runs.

At Dutch Cargo bikes in Moorabbin, owners Jurgen and Emmy Heikamp said inquiries about their electric-powered, passenger-carrying bikes had increased by 150 per cent in recent weeks.

At the Cargo Cycles workshop in Brunswick, there is a six-week waiting list for work on bikes, despite the lead-up to winter typically being a quiet time of year.

Owner Gary Cookson said business was about 20 per cent busier due to the fuel crisis.

“The conversation comes up every day,” Cookson said. “People are trying to drive less and use the bike more.”

He said there had also been a noticeable rise in inquiries from new customers keen to do test rides before buying a cargo bike.

“They love the concept and see people doing it more,” he said. “But often it takes multiple visits and bike tests before they buy.”

Thornbury mother of three Emily Hehir bought her e-cargo bike, which she uses to get the kids to school and kinder, long before the fuel crisis erupted, but admitted this week to feeling a bit smug in the present circumstances.

“There is so much unpredictability at the moment, and it’s nice to know this is one thing I can control,” she said. “As long as I can charge the battery, I can get around.”

Her work, her children’s school and childcare centre are all within five kilometres of her Thornbury home.

The teacher spent $10,000 on a front loading e-cargo bike with automatic gear-changing and enough room for her three children Eden Barber, 7, Jonas Barber, 5, and Leila Barber, 3.

“It gets a little bit South-East Asia when we’ve got three kids, three school backpacks and a guitar in the front,” she said.

“But it works. People comment on it all the time saying things like, ‘Oh my gosh, that’s so handy. That’s so cool. Where’d you get that?’”

With Alexander Darling

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